Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases
Identifieur interne : 000411 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000410; suivant : 000412Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases
Auteurs : Sung-Mok Jung ; Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov ; Katsuma Hayashi ; Natalie M. Linton ; Yichi Yang ; Baoyin Yuan ; Tetsuro Kobayashi ; Ryo Kinoshita ; Hiroshi Nishiura [Japon]Source :
- Journal of Clinical Medicine [ 2077-0383 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The exported cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection that were confirmed outside China provide an opportunity to estimate the cumulative incidence and confirmed case fatality risk (cCFR) in mainland China. Knowledge of the cCFR is critical to characterize the severity and understand the pandemic potential of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic. Using the exponential growth rate of the incidence, the present study statistically estimated the cCFR and the basic reproduction number—the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a naïve population. We modeled epidemic growth either from a single index case with illness onset on 8 December 2019 (Scenario 1), or using the growth rate fitted along with the other parameters (Scenario 2) based on data from 20 exported cases reported by 24 January 2020. The cumulative incidence in China by 24 January was estimated at 6924 cases (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4885, 9211) and 19,289 cases (95% CI: 10,901, 30,158), respectively. The latest estimated values of the cCFR were 5.3% (95% CI: 3.5%, 7.5%) for Scenario 1 and 8.4% (95% CI: 5.3%, 12.3%) for Scenario 2. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 2.1 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.2) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7, 3.7) for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Based on these results, we argued that the current COVID-19 epidemic has a substantial potential for causing a pandemic. The proposed approach provides insights in early risk assessment using publicly available data.
Url:
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020523
PubMed: 32075152
PubMed Central: 7074479
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases</title><author><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00523">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@gmail.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email> (R.K.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R." last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00523">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@gmail.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email> (R.K.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00523">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@gmail.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email> (R.K.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M." last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00523">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@gmail.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email> (R.K.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00523">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@gmail.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email> (R.K.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00523">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@gmail.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email> (R.K.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00523">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@gmail.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email> (R.K.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00523">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@gmail.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email> (R.K.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00523">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> 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(K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@gmail.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email> (R.K.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R." last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00523">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@gmail.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email> (R.K.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00523">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@gmail.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email> (R.K.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M." last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00523">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@gmail.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email> (R.K.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00523">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@gmail.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email> (R.K.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00523">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@gmail.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email> (R.K.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00523">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@gmail.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email> (R.K.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00523">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@gmail.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email> (R.K.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00523">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>akhmetzhanov@gmail.com</email> (A.R.A.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@gmail.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email> (R.K.)</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-jcm-09-00523">Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Saitama 332-0012</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of Clinical Medicine</title><idno type="eISSN">2077-0383</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The exported cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection that were confirmed outside China provide an opportunity to estimate the cumulative incidence and confirmed case fatality risk (cCFR) in mainland China. Knowledge of the cCFR is critical to characterize the severity and understand the pandemic potential of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic. Using the exponential growth rate of the incidence, the present study statistically estimated the cCFR and the basic reproduction number—the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a naïve population. We modeled epidemic growth either from a single index case with illness onset on 8 December 2019 (Scenario 1), or using the growth rate fitted along with the other parameters (Scenario 2) based on data from 20 exported cases reported by 24 January 2020. The cumulative incidence in China by 24 January was estimated at 6924 cases (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4885, 9211) and 19,289 cases (95% CI: 10,901, 30,158), respectively. The latest estimated values of the cCFR were 5.3% (95% CI: 3.5%, 7.5%) for Scenario 1 and 8.4% (95% CI: 5.3%, 12.3%) for Scenario 2. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 2.1 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.2) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7, 3.7) for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Based on these results, we argued that the current COVID-19 epidemic has a substantial potential for causing a pandemic. The proposed approach provides insights in early risk assessment using publicly available data.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Li, Q" uniqKey="Li Q">Q. Li</name></author><author><name sortKey="Guan, X" uniqKey="Guan X">X. Guan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, P" uniqKey="Wu P">P. Wu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, X" uniqKey="Wang X">X. Wang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhou, L" uniqKey="Zhou L">L. Zhou</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tong, Y" uniqKey="Tong Y">Y. Tong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ren, R" uniqKey="Ren R">R. 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Akhmetzhanov</name><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name><name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M." last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name><name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name></noCountry><country name="Japon"><noRegion><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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